The Road Ahead – Four (4) “Mile Markers” to Watch in the Year Ahead

The highway for the final yr and a half has been bumpy, to say the least. The Pandemic, the election, and the provide chain have been difficult. But, regardless of these challenges, the procuring middle trade continues to develop. Demand for retail house is surging again to pre-pandemic ranges. Tenants have usually stayed present with rents, figuring out agreements for abatements and deferrals. Additional, regardless of a document variety of bankruptcies in 2020, retail chapter filings have been nearly silent in 2021. With vaccinations slowly inching upward, it seems that life is beginning to get again to a brand new sense of regular (though with a masks in your again pocket).

Following are some tendencies and points that our Procuring Heart and Retail Growth Group imagine might be of eager curiosity throughout the subsequent 12 months:

  1. Vacation Gross sales Anticipated to Develop Virtually 9% this Year. Current data by ICSC signifies that consumers are beginning their vacation purchases earlier. ICSC’s Annual Holiday Shopping Intentions Survey forecasts an 8.9 p.c year-over-year enhance in November-December gross sales, with the whole anticipated to attain $923 billion. Such a lift in vacation gross sales may very well be an actual boon to the financial system and leasing in the retail trade.

  2. Tax Insurance policies. With the Infrastructure bill pushing via Congress, the focus is on how the invoice might be paid for. Regardless of early issues about Congress paying for the similar via larger tax revenues from carried curiosity, 1031 exchanges, or center and better earners appear to be off the desk. However, a attainable enhance on billionaires may very well be a major supply. How the invoice, if handed, is paid for may have vital ramifications for the procuring middle and retail trade.

  3. Smoke ‘Em If You Acquired ‘Em – Legalizing Hashish? The Protected Banking Act handed the Home in April 2021. The invoice usually permits banks to service official cannabis-related companies. According to Forbes, Senate Majority Chief Chuck Schumer (D-NY) mentioned advancing federal marijuana legalization is the first precedence. At the moment, solely seven (7) states haven’t decriminalized or allowed medical use. The legalization of hashish may very well be an enormous driver of a brand new tenant base for some facilities.

  4. Enforcement Actions. Most of the states’ industrial eviction moratoriums have expired or are set to expire in early 2022. Which means that landlords have the skill to take away unpaying tenants and fill house with demand. Getting via the inevitable backlog of circumstances might be of prime concern for landlords.

These 4 (4) “mile markers” are only a few gadgets figuring out the highway forward for industrial actual property.

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